Originally published at crisis magazine
Much has been written about the global fertility crisis, but almost all of the solutions to this crisis that have been proposed thus far are unlikely to be effective. First, a few statistics to summarize the situation: Between 1950 and 2021, the global total fertility rate (TFR, defined as the number of children that women would bear across their lifetime if their rate of childbearing at each age matches today’s rates) fell by more than half, from 4.84 to 2.23. Replacement level is generally estimated to be a TFR of 2.1. As of 2021, less than half (46.1 percent) of the countries and territories around the world had a TFR that exceeded replacement level. That figure is predicted to decline to 24 percent by 2050 and 2.9 percent by 2100, with the global TFR falling to 1.83 and 1.59, respectively. Additional fertility statistics can be found here.
As a result of declining fertility rates, more and more countries will find themselves facing an inverted population pyramid, with increasing numbers of older people and decreasing numbers of people of working age. The growing elderly population will place increasing demands on health care services and social welfare programs (e.g., social security, government-subsidized
